#1996-005A "The Timing of Disability Insurance Application: A Choice-Based Semiparametric Hazard Model."
by Yang-Woo Kim, J.S. Butler, and Richard V. Burkhauser


We use a choice-based subsample of Social Security Disability Insurance applicants from the 1978 Social Security Survey of Disability and Work to test the importance of policy variables on the timing of application for disability insurance benefits following the onset of a work limiting health condition. More...

#1996-004A "A Revised Measure of the St. Louis Adjusted Monetary Base"
by Richard G. Anderson, and Robert H. Rasche


The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis' adjusted monetary base combines in a single index Federal Reserve actions that affect the supply base money -- open market operations, discount window lending and unsterilized foreign exchange market intervention -- with actions that affect depository institutions' demand for base money -- changes in statutory reserve requirements. The adjusted monetary base equals the sum of the monetary base and a reserve adjustment magnitude (RAM) that maps changes in reserve requirements into equivalent changes in the (unadjusted) monetary base. More...

PUBLISHED: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, March/April 1996, 78(2)

#1996-003A "Aggregate Dynamics of Lumpy Agents"
by Donald S. Allen
March 1996

This paper identifies the criteria for dynamic synchronization of the movement of agents who make intermittent adjustment to inventory stocks, leading to "harmonic resonance" rather than cancellation. I use a discrete Markov process model of (S,s) inventory adjustment to establish a theoretical framework for the aggregate dynamics and use simulations to demonstrate the distribution effects of a discrete model of lumpy behavior. More...

PUBLISHED: International Journal of Production Economics, March 1999

#1996-002A "Identifying the Liquidity Effect: the Case of Nonborrowed Reserves."
by Daniel L. Thornton
February 1996

Despite the fact that efforts to identify it empirically have largely been futile, the liquidity effect plays a central role in conventional monetary theory and policy. Recently, however, an increasing volume of empirical work [Christiano and Eichenbaum (1992a,b), Christiano, Eichenbaum and Evans (1994a,b) and Strongin (1995)] has supported the existence of a statistically significant and economically important liquidity effect when nonborrowed reserves is used as the indicator of monetary policy. More...

PUBLISHED: Shortened version published in the Journal of Banking and Finance, September 2001, 25(9), pp. 1717-39.

#1996-001A "Discount Rate Policies of Five Federal Reserve Chairmen"
by Daniel L. Thornton
February 1996

This paper investigates the discount rate policies of five Federal Reserve chairmen: Martin, Burns, Miller, Volcker and Greenspan. Both in terms of the reasons given for making discount rate changes and the frequency of discount rate changes, the discount rate policies of Martin and Greenspan were very similar, as were those of Burns and Volcker. More...

#1995-004B "Commitment as Investment Under Uncertainty"
by Joseph Ritter, and Joseph G. Haubrich
March 1995
Revised April 1996

Irreversible investment and the techniques associated with pricing real options have led to significant advances many areas. We broaden this range of applications, showing how the techniques can apply to many policy problems in finance, macroeconomics, and trade policy. More...

#1994-032C "The Information Content of Discount Rate Announcements: What's Behind the Announcement Effect"
by Daniel L. Thornton

Revised March 1996

A considerable volume of research shows that asset prices respond to changes in the Federal Reserve's discount rate. While several competing hypotheses have been advanced to explain the market's response to discount rate announcements, comparatively little effort has been made to differentiate among alternative hypotheses. More...

PUBLISHED: Journal of Banking and Finance, January 1998

#1994-021B "Technical Progress, Inefficiency and Productivity Change in U.S. Banking, 1984-1993"
by David C. Wheelock, and Paul Wilson

Revised October 1996

Numerous studies have found that US commercial banks are quite inefficient, and we find that, on average, banks became more technically inefficient between 1984 and 1993. Our analysis of productivity change, however, shows that technological improvements adopted by a few banks pushed out the efficient frontier, and that, on average, commercial banks experienced productivity gains. More...

PUBLISHED: Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, May 1999, 31(2), pp. 212-34

#1994-019B "International Risk Sharing and Low Cross-Country Consumption Correlations: Are They Really Inconsistent?"
by Michael R. Pakko
May 1994
Revised August 1996

In dynamic equilibrium trade models, the common assumption that asset markets are complete implies that correlations of consumption across countries should be quite high. In contrast, measured consumption correlations tend to be rather low. More...

PUBLISHED: Review of International Economics, August 1997, 5(3), pp. 386-400

#1994-014C "A Model of Learning and Emulation with Artificial Adaptive Agents"
by James Bullard, and John Duffy

Revised December 1996

We study adaptive learning behavior in a sequence of n-period endowment overlapping generations economies with fiat currency, where n refers to the number of periods in agents' lifetimes. Agents initially have heterogeneous beliefs and seek to form multi-step-ahead forecasts of future prices using a forecast rule chosen from a vast set of possible forecast rules. More...

PUBLISHED: Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, February 1998