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Working Paper 1999-016B

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"Intraday Technical Trading in the Foreign Exchange Market"
by Christopher J. Neely, and Paul A. Weller

This paper examines the out-of-sample performance of intraday technical trading strategies selected using two methodologies, a genetic program and an optimized linear forecasting model. When realistic transaction costs and trading hours are taken into account, we find no evidence of excess returns to the trading rules derived with either methodology. Thus, our results are consistent with market efficiency. We do, however, find that the trading rules discover some remarkably stable patterns in the data.

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Category > International
Author > Christopher J. Neely