Event studies show that Fed unconventional announcements of forward guidance and large scale
asset purchases had large and desired effects on asset prices but do not tell us how long such
The nature of the business cycle appears to have changed. Prior to the 1990s, recoveries
from recessions were quick and steep; after the past three recessions, however, recoveries were
weak and prolonged.
This paper uses several methods to study the interrelationship among Divisia monetary aggregates, prices, and income, allowing for nonstationary, nonlinearities, asymmetries, and time-varying relationships among the series.
This paper explores the (late) nutrition-cognition link using novel panel data
from India for very young children. We estimate a value-added model of cogni-
tive development that corrects for biases in the previous literature.
The Malthusian theory of evolution disregards a pervasive fact about human
societies: they expand through conflict. When this is taken account of the long-run
favors not a large population at the level of subsistence, nor yet institutions that
maximize welfare or per capita output, but rather institutions that maximize free
Factor models have become useful tools for studying international business cycles. Block
factor models [e.g., Kose, Otrok, and Whiteman (2003)] can be especially useful as the zero
restrictions on the loadings of some factors may provide some economic interpretation of the
A large literature studies the information contained in national-level economic
indicators, such as financial and aggregate economic activity variables, for forecasting and
nowcasting U.S. business cycle phases (expansions and recessions.)
We study the contraction of foreign direct investment (FDI) flows in the United States during the recent financial crisis and show their unusual non-resiliency, which depends in part on the global nature of the economic recession, but also on the increases in the cost of financing FDI in the economies in which the flows originate.
Characterizing asset price volatility is an important goal for financial economists. The literature has shown that variables that proxy for the information arrival process can help explain and/or forecast volatility.
This paper surveys recent developments in the evaluation of point forecasts.
Taking West’s (2006) survey as a starting point, we briefly cover the state of the litera-
ture as of the time of West’s writing.