Economics Working Papers

"Are Credit Unions Too Small?" (2008-09-17)
by David C. Wheelock, and Paul Wilson
Working Paper 2008-033A. Since 1985, the share of U.S. depository institution assets held by credit unions has nearly doubled, and the average (inflation-adjusted) size of credit unions has increased over 600 percent. We use a non-parametric local-linear estimator to estimate a cost relationship for credit unions and derive estimates of ray-scale and expansion-path scale economies. More...

"The Great Inflation: Did The Shadow Know Better?" (2008-09-04)
by William Poole, Robert H. Rasche, and David C. Wheelock
Working Paper 2008-032A. The Shadow Open Market Committee was formed in 1973 in response to rising inflation and the apparent unwillingness of U.S. policymakers to implement policies necessary to maintain price stability. More...

"Asset Prices, Exchange Rates and the Current Account" (2008-08-25)
by Marcel Fratzscher, Luciana Juvenal, and Lucio Sarno
Working Paper 2008-031A. This paper analyses the role of asset prices in comparison to other factors, in particular exchange rates, as a driver of the US trade balance. More...

"Averaging Forecasts from VARs with Uncertain Instabilities" (2008-08-25)
by Todd E. Clark, and Michael W. McCracken
Working Paper 2008-030A. Recent work suggests VAR models of output, inflation, and interest rates may be prone to instabilities. In the face of such instabilities, a variety of estimation or forecasting methods might be used to improve the accuracy of forecasts from a VAR. More...

"Tests of Equal Predictive Ability with Real-Time Data" (2008-08-21)
by Todd E. Clark, and Michael W. McCracken
Working Paper 2008-029A. This paper examines the asymptotic and finite-sample properties of tests of equal forecast accuracy applied to direct, multi–step predictions from both non-nested and nested linear regression models. More...