The Challenges of Estimating Potential Output in Real Time
by Robert W. Arnold
in Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, July/August 2009 Vol. 91, No. 4, pp. 271-290
Potential output is an estimate of the level of gross domestic product attainable when the economy is operating at a high rate of resource use. A summary measure of the economy’s productive capacity, potential output plays an important role in the Congressional Budget Office (CBO)’s economic forecast and projection.
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