Economic Synopses
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Short essays on the economic issues of the day written for a generally informed readership.
2012, No. 13
The Relationships Among Changes in GDP, Employment,and Unemployment: This Time, It’s Different
Recent changes in the relationships among GDP growth, the unemployment rate, and the employment-to-population ratio cast doubt on using these relationships to predict future unemployment.
2012, No. 12
Get by with a Little Help from My…Other Exports
The European debt crisis could certainly affect the U.S. economy through other channels…but its direct impact on U.S. exports is likely to be small.
2012, No. 11
What Is Potential GDP and Why Does It Matter?
One look at recent Congressional Budget Office data shows how much estimates of the output gap can change as time passes.
2012, No. 10
Home Equity and Household Income
During 1995-2007, home equity increased more than gross income for high-, low- and middle-income groups.
2012, No. 9
The FOMC: Transparency Achieved?
Greater transparency is a means to better synchronize the public with policymakers and minimize the risks of undesirable economic outcomes.
2012, No. 8
Disentangling the true drivers of oil prices is a critical first step for allocating resources and designing good policy.
2012, No. 7
How Well Do Initial Claims Forecast Employment Growth Over the Business Cycle and Over Time?
Initial claims may now be useful for forecasting employment growth during periods of increasing economic activity.
2012, No. 6
The Mysterious Greek Yield Curve
The hump in the Greek yield curve exists because the calculated yields assume that the bonds will pay off at their full value but market prices incorporate expectations that the payoff will be much lower.
2012, No. 5
Identifying Structural and Cyclical Shocks Across U.S. Regions
It is not clear how monetary policy might be used to reduce local unemployment rates where recruiting intensity is high but the right kind of worker is hard to find.
2012, No. 4
Quantitative Easing and Money Growth: Potential for Higher Inflation?
The enormous quantity of excess reserves can create an even greater expansion in the money supply.
2012, No. 3
Following the Fed with a News Tracker
How should one conclude whether the data have come in stronger, weaker, or as expected?
2012, No. 2
Employment Dynamics During Economic Recoveries
Employment turnover was significantly lower following the Great Recession than following the previous two recessions.
2012, No. 1
Fiscal Policy in the Great Recession and Lessons from the Past
The recent behavior of key fiscal policy variables draws some parallels with the U.S. experience in the Civil War and the two world wars. A specific concern is the possibility of high inflation to finance the accumulated debt.