Natural Rate of Unemployment (Short-Term) (NROUST)
2023:Q4: 5.25 Percent
Quarterly, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Updated: 2013-02-05 3:16 PM CST
|Source:|| U.S. Congress: Congressional Budget Office
|Release:||Budget and Economic Outlook|
The natural rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is the rate of unemployment arising from all sources except fluctuations in aggregate demand. Estimates of potential GDP are based on the long-term natural rate. (CBO did not make explicit adjustments to the short-term natural rate for structural factors before the recent downturn.) The short-term natural rate incorporates structural factors that are temporarily boosting the natural rate beginning in 2008. The short-term natural rate is used to gauge the amount of current and projected slack in labor markets, which is a key input into CBO's projections of inflation.