Title: Leading Index for New York Series ID: NYSLIND Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Release: State Leading Indexes Seasonal Adjustment: Seasonally Adjusted Frequency: Monthly Units: Percent Date Range: 1982-01-01 to 2013-03-01 Last Updated: 2013-04-30 9:19 AM CDT Notes: The leading index for each state predicts the six-month growth rate of the state's coincident index. In addition to the coincident index, the models include other variables that lead the economy: state-level housing permits (1 to 4 units), state initial unemployment insurance claims, delivery times from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing survey, and the interest rate spread between the 10-year Treasury bond and the 3-month Treasury bill. DATE VALUE 1982-01-01 0.24 1982-02-01 0.33 1982-03-01 0.22 1982-04-01 0.31 1982-05-01 0.27 1982-06-01 0.05 1982-07-01 -0.15 1982-08-01 0.10 1982-09-01 0.12 1982-10-01 0.57 1982-11-01 1.12 1982-12-01 1.36 1983-01-01 1.66 1983-02-01 2.05 1983-03-01 2.20 1983-04-01 2.37 1983-05-01 2.63 1983-06-01 2.86 1983-07-01 3.10 1983-08-01 3.38 1983-09-01 3.73 1983-10-01 3.45 1983-11-01 2.89 1983-12-01 2.54 1984-01-01 2.61 1984-02-01 2.36 1984-03-01 2.16 1984-04-01 2.27 1984-05-01 2.11 1984-06-01 2.35 1984-07-01 2.15 1984-08-01 2.26 1984-09-01 2.37 1984-10-01 2.40 1984-11-01 2.04 1984-12-01 1.87 1985-01-01 1.76 1985-02-01 1.67 1985-03-01 2.25 1985-04-01 2.29 1985-05-01 2.11 1985-06-01 1.71 1985-07-01 1.70 1985-08-01 1.88 1985-09-01 1.80 1985-10-01 2.09 1985-11-01 2.14 1985-12-01 1.57 1986-01-01 1.73 1986-02-01 1.59 1986-03-01 2.10 1986-04-01 2.34 1986-05-01 2.30 1986-06-01 2.01 1986-07-01 2.02 1986-08-01 1.57 1986-09-01 1.63 1986-10-01 1.73 1986-11-01 1.81 1986-12-01 2.19 1987-01-01 1.94 1987-02-01 1.56 1987-03-01 1.65 1987-04-01 1.94 1987-05-01 1.91 1987-06-01 1.90 1987-07-01 1.75 1987-08-01 1.59 1987-09-01 1.92 1987-10-01 1.72 1987-11-01 1.67 1987-12-01 1.58 1988-01-01 1.40 1988-02-01 1.34 1988-03-01 1.07 1988-04-01 0.86 1988-05-01 0.77 1988-06-01 1.41 1988-07-01 0.91 1988-08-01 1.34 1988-09-01 1.48 1988-10-01 1.57 1988-11-01 1.45 1988-12-01 1.01 1989-01-01 0.64 1989-02-01 0.19 1989-03-01 0.40 1989-04-01 0.18 1989-05-01 -0.18 1989-06-01 -0.17 1989-07-01 0.14 1989-08-01 0.19 1989-09-01 0.72 1989-10-01 1.13 1989-11-01 1.73 1989-12-01 1.24 1990-01-01 0.63 1990-02-01 0.39 1990-03-01 0.09 1990-04-01 -0.07 1990-05-01 -0.79 1990-06-01 -1.28 1990-07-01 -1.54 1990-08-01 -2.14 1990-09-01 -3.12 1990-10-01 -3.19 1990-11-01 -3.15 1990-12-01 -3.87 1991-01-01 -2.97 1991-02-01 -0.73 1991-03-01 -1.11 1991-04-01 -1.09 1991-05-01 -0.60 1991-06-01 -0.53 1991-07-01 -0.23 1991-08-01 -0.37 1991-09-01 -1.01 1991-10-01 -1.40 1991-11-01 -1.31 1991-12-01 -0.99 1992-01-01 -0.12 1992-02-01 0.17 1992-03-01 0.26 1992-04-01 0.33 1992-05-01 0.25 1992-06-01 0.48 1992-07-01 0.61 1992-08-01 0.61 1992-09-01 0.76 1992-10-01 1.10 1992-11-01 1.21 1992-12-01 1.75 1993-01-01 1.53 1993-02-01 1.17 1993-03-01 1.36 1993-04-01 1.30 1993-05-01 1.46 1993-06-01 1.10 1993-07-01 1.01 1993-08-01 1.08 1993-09-01 0.74 1993-10-01 0.99 1993-11-01 0.60 1993-12-01 0.82 1994-01-01 1.13 1994-02-01 1.97 1994-03-01 1.77 1994-04-01 1.85 1994-05-01 1.66 1994-06-01 1.54 1994-07-01 1.62 1994-08-01 1.85 1994-09-01 1.75 1994-10-01 1.38 1994-11-01 0.84 1994-12-01 0.67 1995-01-01 0.43 1995-02-01 -0.06 1995-03-01 0.37 1995-04-01 0.47 1995-05-01 0.69 1995-06-01 0.83 1995-07-01 1.07 1995-08-01 1.11 1995-09-01 0.45 1995-10-01 0.72 1995-11-01 0.86 1995-12-01 0.71 1996-01-01 1.03 1996-02-01 1.17 1996-03-01 1.02 1996-04-01 1.77 1996-05-01 1.90 1996-06-01 1.40 1996-07-01 1.26 1996-08-01 1.76 1996-09-01 1.31 1996-10-01 0.94 1996-11-01 0.68 1996-12-01 0.98 1997-01-01 1.54 1997-02-01 1.54 1997-03-01 1.63 1997-04-01 1.69 1997-05-01 2.05 1997-06-01 2.41 1997-07-01 2.33 1997-08-01 2.26 1997-09-01 2.23 1997-10-01 1.84 1997-11-01 1.38 1997-12-01 1.75 1998-01-01 1.90 1998-02-01 1.78 1998-03-01 1.79 1998-04-01 1.93 1998-05-01 1.87 1998-06-01 1.70 1998-07-01 1.79 1998-08-01 1.85 1998-09-01 2.18 1998-10-01 2.61 1998-11-01 2.40 1998-12-01 2.38 1999-01-01 2.12 1999-02-01 1.63 1999-03-01 1.61 1999-04-01 1.78 1999-05-01 1.67 1999-06-01 1.96 1999-07-01 2.11 1999-08-01 1.69 1999-09-01 2.15 1999-10-01 2.34 1999-11-01 2.19 1999-12-01 1.71 2000-01-01 1.87 2000-02-01 1.72 2000-03-01 2.07 2000-04-01 1.55 2000-05-01 1.64 2000-06-01 1.50 2000-07-01 1.28 2000-08-01 1.37 2000-09-01 1.28 2000-10-01 0.83 2000-11-01 0.29 2000-12-01 -0.08 2001-01-01 -0.63 2001-02-01 -0.77 2001-03-01 -0.89 2001-04-01 -1.33 2001-05-01 -1.65 2001-06-01 -1.72 2001-07-01 -1.73 2001-08-01 -1.96 2001-09-01 -1.56 2001-10-01 -0.72 2001-11-01 -0.21 2001-12-01 0.26 2002-01-01 0.71 2002-02-01 0.48 2002-03-01 0.58 2002-04-01 0.75 2002-05-01 0.82 2002-06-01 0.76 2002-07-01 0.42 2002-08-01 0.00 2002-09-01 -0.01 2002-10-01 0.28 2002-11-01 -0.28 2002-12-01 -0.24 2003-01-01 0.07 2003-02-01 0.37 2003-03-01 0.25 2003-04-01 0.52 2003-05-01 0.58 2003-06-01 0.62 2003-07-01 1.22 2003-08-01 1.41 2003-09-01 1.13 2003-10-01 0.74 2003-11-01 1.13 2003-12-01 1.26 2004-01-01 1.29 2004-02-01 1.55 2004-03-01 1.54 2004-04-01 1.59 2004-05-01 1.44 2004-06-01 1.33 2004-07-01 1.50 2004-08-01 1.41 2004-09-01 0.99 2004-10-01 1.06 2004-11-01 0.98 2004-12-01 0.94 2005-01-01 0.92 2005-02-01 1.12 2005-03-01 1.32 2005-04-01 1.02 2005-05-01 1.20 2005-06-01 1.17 2005-07-01 0.95 2005-08-01 0.78 2005-09-01 0.78 2005-10-01 1.28 2005-11-01 1.36 2005-12-01 1.45 2006-01-01 1.01 2006-02-01 0.98 2006-03-01 0.96 2006-04-01 1.04 2006-05-01 1.26 2006-06-01 1.34 2006-07-01 1.55 2006-08-01 2.09 2006-09-01 2.01 2006-10-01 1.72 2006-11-01 1.79 2006-12-01 1.03 2007-01-01 0.87 2007-02-01 0.70 2007-03-01 0.70 2007-04-01 0.54 2007-05-01 0.85 2007-06-01 1.03 2007-07-01 1.21 2007-08-01 1.50 2007-09-01 1.55 2007-10-01 1.38 2007-11-01 1.05 2007-12-01 0.89 2008-01-01 0.77 2008-02-01 0.15 2008-03-01 0.18 2008-04-01 0.39 2008-05-01 0.00 2008-06-01 -0.27 2008-07-01 -0.76 2008-08-01 -1.68 2008-09-01 -2.06 2008-10-01 -2.43 2008-11-01 -2.50 2008-12-01 -2.58 2009-01-01 -2.27 2009-02-01 -1.79 2009-03-01 -1.52 2009-04-01 -0.95 2009-05-01 -0.44 2009-06-01 0.26 2009-07-01 0.29 2009-08-01 0.52 2009-09-01 0.79 2009-10-01 0.80 2009-11-01 0.90 2009-12-01 1.36 2010-01-01 1.91 2010-02-01 1.97 2010-03-01 1.85 2010-04-01 0.99 2010-05-01 0.89 2010-06-01 0.90 2010-07-01 1.01 2010-08-01 1.86 2010-09-01 1.59 2010-10-01 1.77 2010-11-01 1.69 2010-12-01 1.65 2011-01-01 1.83 2011-02-01 1.39 2011-03-01 1.29 2011-04-01 1.33 2011-05-01 1.20 2011-06-01 1.13 2011-07-01 1.53 2011-08-01 1.13 2011-09-01 1.52 2011-10-01 1.11 2011-11-01 1.55 2011-12-01 1.23 2012-01-01 1.22 2012-02-01 0.98 2012-03-01 0.75 2012-04-01 1.02 2012-05-01 1.22 2012-06-01 1.05 2012-07-01 1.79 2012-08-01 1.77 2012-09-01 1.15 2012-10-01 1.25 2012-11-01 1.03 2012-12-01 0.73 2013-01-01 1.32 2013-02-01 1.95 2013-03-01 1.90