Title: Leading Index for Michigan Series ID: MISLIND Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Release: State Leading Indexes Seasonal Adjustment: Seasonally Adjusted Frequency: Monthly Units: Percent Date Range: 1982-01-01 to 2013-03-01 Last Updated: 2013-04-30 9:21 AM CDT Notes: The leading index for each state predicts the six-month growth rate of the state's coincident index. In addition to the coincident index, the models include other variables that lead the economy: state-level housing permits (1 to 4 units), state initial unemployment insurance claims, delivery times from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing survey, and the interest rate spread between the 10-year Treasury bond and the 3-month Treasury bill. DATE VALUE 1982-01-01 -3.69 1982-02-01 -1.83 1982-03-01 -1.17 1982-04-01 -0.81 1982-05-01 -0.08 1982-06-01 -1.62 1982-07-01 -3.04 1982-08-01 -3.62 1982-09-01 -3.90 1982-10-01 -2.48 1982-11-01 0.95 1982-12-01 2.21 1983-01-01 3.97 1983-02-01 5.61 1983-03-01 5.83 1983-04-01 6.56 1983-05-01 6.14 1983-06-01 5.64 1983-07-01 4.99 1983-08-01 4.38 1983-09-01 5.40 1983-10-01 4.05 1983-11-01 4.80 1983-12-01 3.92 1984-01-01 4.08 1984-02-01 3.88 1984-03-01 3.45 1984-04-01 3.40 1984-05-01 3.07 1984-06-01 2.76 1984-07-01 3.12 1984-08-01 3.76 1984-09-01 3.08 1984-10-01 4.31 1984-11-01 4.50 1984-12-01 5.03 1985-01-01 5.24 1985-02-01 5.14 1985-03-01 4.57 1985-04-01 3.59 1985-05-01 3.51 1985-06-01 4.70 1985-07-01 4.49 1985-08-01 4.91 1985-09-01 5.79 1985-10-01 6.09 1985-11-01 6.23 1985-12-01 5.00 1986-01-01 4.02 1986-02-01 1.38 1986-03-01 0.83 1986-04-01 0.47 1986-05-01 1.30 1986-06-01 1.38 1986-07-01 2.42 1986-08-01 3.04 1986-09-01 2.80 1986-10-01 2.91 1986-11-01 2.48 1986-12-01 2.37 1987-01-01 1.76 1987-02-01 0.53 1987-03-01 0.47 1987-04-01 0.88 1987-05-01 1.41 1987-06-01 1.72 1987-07-01 2.38 1987-08-01 1.99 1987-09-01 1.57 1987-10-01 1.19 1987-11-01 0.72 1987-12-01 0.85 1988-01-01 2.04 1988-02-01 3.76 1988-03-01 4.72 1988-04-01 3.76 1988-05-01 2.94 1988-06-01 2.89 1988-07-01 2.63 1988-08-01 0.97 1988-09-01 1.35 1988-10-01 1.14 1988-11-01 2.78 1988-12-01 2.40 1989-01-01 3.30 1989-02-01 1.74 1989-03-01 0.31 1989-04-01 0.21 1989-05-01 0.20 1989-06-01 -0.22 1989-07-01 0.10 1989-08-01 -0.98 1989-09-01 -1.68 1989-10-01 -1.73 1989-11-01 -0.67 1989-12-01 0.99 1990-01-01 1.47 1990-02-01 3.24 1990-03-01 2.51 1990-04-01 0.62 1990-05-01 0.16 1990-06-01 0.72 1990-07-01 -1.02 1990-08-01 -1.72 1990-09-01 -2.30 1990-10-01 -2.59 1990-11-01 -3.32 1990-12-01 -3.26 1991-01-01 -2.23 1991-02-01 -1.75 1991-03-01 -0.61 1991-04-01 0.73 1991-05-01 2.48 1991-06-01 3.06 1991-07-01 3.16 1991-08-01 2.15 1991-09-01 1.65 1991-10-01 0.91 1991-11-01 0.51 1991-12-01 0.06 1992-01-01 1.07 1992-02-01 2.77 1992-03-01 2.27 1992-04-01 3.33 1992-05-01 2.73 1992-06-01 3.49 1992-07-01 4.32 1992-08-01 5.53 1992-09-01 6.13 1992-10-01 5.64 1992-11-01 4.83 1992-12-01 3.57 1993-01-01 3.42 1993-02-01 3.67 1993-03-01 2.85 1993-04-01 3.22 1993-05-01 3.06 1993-06-01 2.31 1993-07-01 2.29 1993-08-01 2.49 1993-09-01 3.66 1993-10-01 2.81 1993-11-01 2.16 1993-12-01 1.43 1994-01-01 3.85 1994-02-01 4.54 1994-03-01 4.87 1994-04-01 4.57 1994-05-01 4.63 1994-06-01 3.26 1994-07-01 3.77 1994-08-01 3.21 1994-09-01 4.23 1994-10-01 3.99 1994-11-01 4.49 1994-12-01 2.75 1995-01-01 1.21 1995-02-01 0.27 1995-03-01 -0.16 1995-04-01 -0.59 1995-05-01 1.63 1995-06-01 2.62 1995-07-01 2.58 1995-08-01 2.29 1995-09-01 2.96 1995-10-01 1.81 1995-11-01 0.88 1995-12-01 1.54 1996-01-01 0.74 1996-02-01 1.01 1996-03-01 1.93 1996-04-01 2.66 1996-05-01 1.11 1996-06-01 0.66 1996-07-01 0.93 1996-08-01 2.17 1996-09-01 2.03 1996-10-01 3.11 1996-11-01 2.66 1996-12-01 1.66 1997-01-01 1.97 1997-02-01 1.68 1997-03-01 2.38 1997-04-01 2.44 1997-05-01 3.10 1997-06-01 1.69 1997-07-01 1.08 1997-08-01 0.32 1997-09-01 1.39 1997-10-01 1.26 1997-11-01 1.38 1997-12-01 2.11 1998-01-01 2.46 1998-02-01 3.13 1998-03-01 1.66 1998-04-01 1.18 1998-05-01 0.69 1998-06-01 -0.25 1998-07-01 -4.20 1998-08-01 6.45 1998-09-01 2.21 1998-10-01 -0.82 1998-11-01 -0.14 1998-12-01 2.12 1999-01-01 2.15 1999-02-01 1.38 1999-03-01 0.91 1999-04-01 1.69 1999-05-01 1.84 1999-06-01 1.67 1999-07-01 1.40 1999-08-01 0.85 1999-09-01 0.81 1999-10-01 1.31 1999-11-01 2.37 1999-12-01 2.84 2000-01-01 3.08 2000-02-01 2.07 2000-03-01 0.34 2000-04-01 -1.30 2000-05-01 -2.34 2000-06-01 -1.12 2000-07-01 -0.81 2000-08-01 -0.98 2000-09-01 -1.07 2000-10-01 -1.50 2000-11-01 -1.69 2000-12-01 -2.40 2001-01-01 -4.54 2001-02-01 -0.91 2001-03-01 -1.94 2001-04-01 -1.82 2001-05-01 -2.17 2001-06-01 -1.29 2001-07-01 -1.40 2001-08-01 -1.78 2001-09-01 -1.95 2001-10-01 -1.86 2001-11-01 -1.03 2001-12-01 -1.18 2002-01-01 0.00 2002-02-01 1.18 2002-03-01 2.36 2002-04-01 2.45 2002-05-01 2.09 2002-06-01 1.79 2002-07-01 2.51 2002-08-01 2.26 2002-09-01 1.39 2002-10-01 0.42 2002-11-01 -1.40 2002-12-01 -2.02 2003-01-01 -1.47 2003-02-01 -0.61 2003-03-01 -0.56 2003-04-01 -0.80 2003-05-01 0.76 2003-06-01 0.79 2003-07-01 1.17 2003-08-01 1.55 2003-09-01 3.58 2003-10-01 3.69 2003-11-01 2.84 2003-12-01 0.59 2004-01-01 0.77 2004-02-01 0.24 2004-03-01 -0.16 2004-04-01 -0.18 2004-05-01 -0.39 2004-06-01 0.34 2004-07-01 0.27 2004-08-01 0.81 2004-09-01 -0.10 2004-10-01 0.38 2004-11-01 0.67 2004-12-01 0.80 2005-01-01 0.61 2005-02-01 1.24 2005-03-01 0.55 2005-04-01 0.39 2005-05-01 0.71 2005-06-01 0.98 2005-07-01 0.34 2005-08-01 -0.88 2005-09-01 -0.96 2005-10-01 -1.59 2005-11-01 -1.37 2005-12-01 -1.26 2006-01-01 -0.73 2006-02-01 -0.91 2006-03-01 -0.92 2006-04-01 -1.41 2006-05-01 -2.55 2006-06-01 -2.18 2006-07-01 -2.22 2006-08-01 -0.94 2006-09-01 -1.31 2006-10-01 -0.18 2006-11-01 0.26 2006-12-01 -0.20 2007-01-01 -1.78 2007-02-01 -0.69 2007-03-01 -0.78 2007-04-01 -1.95 2007-05-01 -3.05 2007-06-01 -3.99 2007-07-01 -2.51 2007-08-01 -1.14 2007-09-01 -0.60 2007-10-01 -0.92 2007-11-01 -0.54 2007-12-01 0.23 2008-01-01 0.19 2008-02-01 -1.45 2008-03-01 -1.76 2008-04-01 -3.21 2008-05-01 -3.38 2008-06-01 -2.64 2008-07-01 -2.95 2008-08-01 -2.80 2008-09-01 -3.42 2008-10-01 -3.98 2008-11-01 -5.53 2008-12-01 -6.07 2009-01-01 -6.85 2009-02-01 -5.04 2009-03-01 -4.43 2009-04-01 -4.11 2009-05-01 -2.34 2009-06-01 -1.80 2009-07-01 -1.05 2009-08-01 0.19 2009-09-01 1.97 2009-10-01 2.03 2009-11-01 0.97 2009-12-01 1.26 2010-01-01 2.44 2010-02-01 3.80 2010-03-01 3.24 2010-04-01 3.69 2010-05-01 3.17 2010-06-01 2.60 2010-07-01 2.16 2010-08-01 1.88 2010-09-01 3.32 2010-10-01 3.94 2010-11-01 4.03 2010-12-01 3.19 2011-01-01 3.69 2011-02-01 2.91 2011-03-01 1.29 2011-04-01 0.57 2011-05-01 0.72 2011-06-01 0.12 2011-07-01 1.81 2011-08-01 3.86 2011-09-01 4.76 2011-10-01 4.66 2011-11-01 4.54 2011-12-01 3.76 2012-01-01 2.65 2012-02-01 1.37 2012-03-01 0.84 2012-04-01 -0.53 2012-05-01 -0.79 2012-06-01 0.15 2012-07-01 1.71 2012-08-01 1.71 2012-09-01 2.05 2012-10-01 2.11 2012-11-01 2.26 2012-12-01 1.47 2013-01-01 1.24 2013-02-01 2.59 2013-03-01 4.18