Title: Leading Index for California Series ID: CASLIND Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Release: State Leading Indexes Seasonal Adjustment: Seasonally Adjusted Frequency: Monthly Units: Percent Date Range: 1982-01-01 to 2013-03-01 Last Updated: 2013-04-30 9:20 AM CDT Notes: The leading index for each state predicts the six-month growth rate of the state's coincident index. In addition to the coincident index, the models include other variables that lead the economy: state-level housing permits (1 to 4 units), state initial unemployment insurance claims, delivery times from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing survey, and the interest rate spread between the 10-year Treasury bond and the 3-month Treasury bill. DATE VALUE 1982-01-01 -0.74 1982-02-01 -0.42 1982-03-01 -0.25 1982-04-01 -0.37 1982-05-01 -0.73 1982-06-01 -0.50 1982-07-01 -0.30 1982-08-01 -0.49 1982-09-01 -0.12 1982-10-01 0.32 1982-11-01 0.85 1982-12-01 1.46 1983-01-01 1.91 1983-02-01 2.30 1983-03-01 2.38 1983-04-01 2.71 1983-05-01 3.09 1983-06-01 3.23 1983-07-01 2.79 1983-08-01 2.95 1983-09-01 2.99 1983-10-01 3.42 1983-11-01 2.89 1983-12-01 2.93 1984-01-01 3.51 1984-02-01 3.37 1984-03-01 3.38 1984-04-01 3.18 1984-05-01 3.04 1984-06-01 2.65 1984-07-01 2.90 1984-08-01 2.57 1984-09-01 2.62 1984-10-01 2.25 1984-11-01 2.39 1984-12-01 2.71 1985-01-01 2.49 1985-02-01 2.36 1985-03-01 2.43 1985-04-01 2.48 1985-05-01 2.23 1985-06-01 2.15 1985-07-01 2.47 1985-08-01 2.65 1985-09-01 2.37 1985-10-01 1.97 1985-11-01 2.07 1985-12-01 1.93 1986-01-01 2.14 1986-02-01 1.83 1986-03-01 1.93 1986-04-01 2.43 1986-05-01 2.43 1986-06-01 2.58 1986-07-01 2.77 1986-08-01 2.40 1986-09-01 2.03 1986-10-01 2.48 1986-11-01 2.76 1986-12-01 2.65 1987-01-01 2.49 1987-02-01 2.28 1987-03-01 2.67 1987-04-01 2.60 1987-05-01 2.48 1987-06-01 2.46 1987-07-01 2.59 1987-08-01 2.31 1987-09-01 2.60 1987-10-01 2.74 1987-11-01 2.91 1987-12-01 2.54 1988-01-01 2.85 1988-02-01 2.55 1988-03-01 2.37 1988-04-01 2.17 1988-05-01 2.17 1988-06-01 2.18 1988-07-01 2.03 1988-08-01 2.03 1988-09-01 2.36 1988-10-01 2.87 1988-11-01 2.37 1988-12-01 2.37 1989-01-01 2.14 1989-02-01 1.76 1989-03-01 1.08 1989-04-01 1.19 1989-05-01 0.95 1989-06-01 1.11 1989-07-01 1.39 1989-08-01 1.52 1989-09-01 1.77 1989-10-01 2.02 1989-11-01 2.15 1989-12-01 2.36 1990-01-01 2.11 1990-02-01 1.98 1990-03-01 1.46 1990-04-01 1.22 1990-05-01 1.25 1990-06-01 1.10 1990-07-01 0.71 1990-08-01 -0.07 1990-09-01 -0.02 1990-10-01 -0.26 1990-11-01 -0.50 1990-12-01 -0.68 1991-01-01 -0.48 1991-02-01 -0.46 1991-03-01 -0.34 1991-04-01 -0.08 1991-05-01 0.28 1991-06-01 0.60 1991-07-01 0.70 1991-08-01 0.69 1991-09-01 -0.16 1991-10-01 -0.18 1991-11-01 -0.64 1991-12-01 -0.71 1992-01-01 -0.35 1992-02-01 -0.15 1992-03-01 0.42 1992-04-01 0.39 1992-05-01 0.63 1992-06-01 0.67 1992-07-01 0.35 1992-08-01 0.21 1992-09-01 0.04 1992-10-01 0.58 1992-11-01 0.96 1992-12-01 0.73 1993-01-01 0.76 1993-02-01 0.53 1993-03-01 0.91 1993-04-01 0.75 1993-05-01 1.00 1993-06-01 1.03 1993-07-01 1.27 1993-08-01 1.28 1993-09-01 1.20 1993-10-01 0.77 1993-11-01 0.63 1993-12-01 1.29 1994-01-01 1.24 1994-02-01 1.39 1994-03-01 1.59 1994-04-01 1.48 1994-05-01 1.56 1994-06-01 1.23 1994-07-01 1.12 1994-08-01 1.59 1994-09-01 1.94 1994-10-01 2.04 1994-11-01 1.69 1994-12-01 1.88 1995-01-01 1.54 1995-02-01 1.35 1995-03-01 1.21 1995-04-01 1.43 1995-05-01 1.79 1995-06-01 1.90 1995-07-01 1.90 1995-08-01 2.13 1995-09-01 2.02 1995-10-01 1.89 1995-11-01 1.83 1995-12-01 1.63 1996-01-01 1.95 1996-02-01 1.76 1996-03-01 1.71 1996-04-01 1.77 1996-05-01 1.84 1996-06-01 2.27 1996-07-01 2.14 1996-08-01 2.14 1996-09-01 1.91 1996-10-01 1.85 1996-11-01 2.28 1996-12-01 2.01 1997-01-01 2.08 1997-02-01 2.41 1997-03-01 2.74 1997-04-01 2.79 1997-05-01 2.58 1997-06-01 2.37 1997-07-01 1.86 1997-08-01 1.87 1997-09-01 2.28 1997-10-01 2.03 1997-11-01 2.36 1997-12-01 2.52 1998-01-01 2.53 1998-02-01 2.17 1998-03-01 2.57 1998-04-01 1.99 1998-05-01 2.06 1998-06-01 2.47 1998-07-01 2.48 1998-08-01 2.32 1998-09-01 2.11 1998-10-01 2.12 1998-11-01 2.38 1998-12-01 1.82 1999-01-01 1.61 1999-02-01 1.69 1999-03-01 1.52 1999-04-01 1.97 1999-05-01 2.11 1999-06-01 2.44 1999-07-01 2.34 1999-08-01 2.52 1999-09-01 2.32 1999-10-01 2.64 1999-11-01 2.44 1999-12-01 2.35 2000-01-01 2.27 2000-02-01 2.29 2000-03-01 2.31 2000-04-01 2.17 2000-05-01 2.33 2000-06-01 2.33 2000-07-01 2.33 2000-08-01 2.30 2000-09-01 2.10 2000-10-01 1.77 2000-11-01 1.39 2000-12-01 1.26 2001-01-01 0.63 2001-02-01 0.14 2001-03-01 0.19 2001-04-01 -0.47 2001-05-01 -0.70 2001-06-01 -0.78 2001-07-01 -0.68 2001-08-01 -0.53 2001-09-01 -0.84 2001-10-01 -0.45 2001-11-01 -0.25 2001-12-01 0.31 2002-01-01 0.42 2002-02-01 1.09 2002-03-01 0.88 2002-04-01 1.03 2002-05-01 0.98 2002-06-01 0.92 2002-07-01 0.79 2002-08-01 0.85 2002-09-01 0.52 2002-10-01 0.63 2002-11-01 0.93 2002-12-01 0.77 2003-01-01 0.16 2003-02-01 0.37 2003-03-01 0.67 2003-04-01 0.33 2003-05-01 0.51 2003-06-01 0.66 2003-07-01 1.05 2003-08-01 0.85 2003-09-01 1.07 2003-10-01 1.46 2003-11-01 1.61 2003-12-01 1.69 2004-01-01 1.77 2004-02-01 1.55 2004-03-01 1.41 2004-04-01 1.69 2004-05-01 1.93 2004-06-01 1.72 2004-07-01 1.63 2004-08-01 1.69 2004-09-01 1.21 2004-10-01 1.54 2004-11-01 1.90 2004-12-01 1.36 2005-01-01 1.31 2005-02-01 1.69 2005-03-01 1.86 2005-04-01 1.99 2005-05-01 1.68 2005-06-01 1.60 2005-07-01 2.23 2005-08-01 2.07 2005-09-01 1.55 2005-10-01 1.64 2005-11-01 1.75 2005-12-01 1.79 2006-01-01 1.22 2006-02-01 1.41 2006-03-01 1.15 2006-04-01 0.79 2006-05-01 0.84 2006-06-01 1.08 2006-07-01 1.12 2006-08-01 1.31 2006-09-01 1.20 2006-10-01 0.97 2006-11-01 0.53 2006-12-01 0.82 2007-01-01 0.64 2007-02-01 0.91 2007-03-01 0.68 2007-04-01 0.44 2007-05-01 0.43 2007-06-01 0.62 2007-07-01 0.68 2007-08-01 0.42 2007-09-01 0.34 2007-10-01 0.43 2007-11-01 0.27 2007-12-01 0.06 2008-01-01 -0.04 2008-02-01 -0.22 2008-03-01 -0.27 2008-04-01 -0.17 2008-05-01 -0.90 2008-06-01 -1.08 2008-07-01 -0.97 2008-08-01 -1.28 2008-09-01 -1.73 2008-10-01 -2.67 2008-11-01 -3.46 2008-12-01 -3.69 2009-01-01 -3.27 2009-02-01 -3.53 2009-03-01 -3.18 2009-04-01 -2.54 2009-05-01 -2.23 2009-06-01 -1.83 2009-07-01 -1.54 2009-08-01 -0.92 2009-09-01 -0.36 2009-10-01 0.14 2009-11-01 0.47 2009-12-01 1.08 2010-01-01 0.91 2010-02-01 1.04 2010-03-01 1.68 2010-04-01 1.68 2010-05-01 1.38 2010-06-01 0.74 2010-07-01 0.91 2010-08-01 0.95 2010-09-01 1.14 2010-10-01 1.83 2010-11-01 1.93 2010-12-01 1.65 2011-01-01 1.64 2011-02-01 1.64 2011-03-01 1.79 2011-04-01 0.94 2011-05-01 1.07 2011-06-01 0.86 2011-07-01 1.46 2011-08-01 1.93 2011-09-01 2.22 2011-10-01 2.19 2011-11-01 2.01 2011-12-01 2.04 2012-01-01 2.38 2012-02-01 2.13 2012-03-01 1.73 2012-04-01 1.60 2012-05-01 1.95 2012-06-01 1.72 2012-07-01 2.07 2012-08-01 2.41 2012-09-01 1.85 2012-10-01 1.63 2012-11-01 1.75 2012-12-01 1.13 2013-01-01 1.67 2013-02-01 2.39 2013-03-01 2.21