Daniel L. Thornton

Standard Vita

Biography

IDEAS

Education

Ph.D. Economics
University of Missouri-Columbia
1976

M.S. Economics
Arizona State University
1969

B.A. Economics
Parsons College
1967

Contact Info

Phone: (314) 444-8582
Fax: (314) 444-8731
Email: thornton@stls.frb.org

Research Division
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
P.O. Box 442
St. Louis, MO 63166-0442

For media inquiries contact:
Laura Girresch
mediainquiries@stls.frb.org
Office: (314) 444-6166
Cell: (314) 348-3639

Daniel L. Thornton

Publications

"Monetary Policy: Why Money Matters, and Interest Rates Don’t"
FORTHCOMING: Journal of Macroeconomics.

“The Federal Reserve's response to the financial crisis: what it did and what it should have done,” in Developments in Macro-Finance Yield Curve Modelling, Jagjit S. Chadha, Alain C.J. Durre, Michael A.S. Joyce, and Lucio Sarno, eds, Cambridge University Press, 2014, 90-120.

"The Identification of the Response of Interest Rates to Monetary Policy Actions Using Market-Based Measures of Monetary Policy Shocks"
Oxford Economic Papers, January 2014, 66(1), pp. 67-87.

"The Effect of Underreporting on LIBOR Rates"
with Andrea Monticini
Journal of Macroeconomics, September 2013, 37, pp. 345-348.

"Out-of-Sample Predictions of Bond Excess Returns with Forward Rates: An Asset-Allocation Perspective"
with Giorgio Valente
Review of Financial Studies, October 2012, 25 (10), pp. 3141-3168.
Published Article

"The Phillips Curve and US Monetary Policy: What the FOMC Transcripts Tell Us"
with Ellen E. Meade
Oxford Economic Papers, April 2012, 64, pp. 197-216.

"How Did We Get to Inflation Targeting and Where Do We Go Now? A Perspective From the U.S. Experience"
Inflation Targeting Twenty Years On: Past Lessons and Future Prospects. David Cobham, Øyvind Eitrheim, Stefan Gerlach and Jan Qvigstad, (ed.) Cambridge University Press, pp. 90-110.

"The Expectation Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Very Short-Term Rates: Statistical Tests and Economic Value"
with Pasquale Della Corte and Lucio Sarno
Journal of Financial Economics, July 2008, 89(1), pp. 158-74.

"What's Unique About the Federal Funds Rate? Evidence From a Spectral Perspective"
with Lucio Sarno and Yi Wen
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, April 2007, 69(2), pp. 293-319.

"The Empirical Failure of the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Bond Yields"
with Lucio Sarno and Giorgio Valente
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, March 2007, 42(1), pp. 81-100.

"Open Market Operations and the Federal Funds Rate"
Open Market Operations and Financial Markets, 2007, pp. 178-202.

"When Did the FOMC Begin Targeting the Federal Funds Rate? What the Verbatim Transcripts Tell Us"
Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, December 2006, 38(8), pp. 2039-71.

"Tests of the Expectations Hypothesis: Resolving the Campbell-Shiller Paradox"
Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, March 2006, 38(2), pp. 511-42.

"Test of the Expectations Hypothesis: Resolving the Anomalies When the Short-Term Rate Is the Federal Funds Rate"
Journal of Banking and Finance, October 2005, 29(10), pp. 2541-56.

"Federal Funds Rate Prediction"
with Lucio Sarno and Giorgio Valente
Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, June 2005, 37(3), pp. 449-71.

"A Note On The Expectations Hypothesis At The Founding Of The Fed"
with Clemens J.M. Kool
Journal of Banking and Finance, December 2004, 28(12), pp. 3055-68.

"Forecasting the Treasury's Balance at the Fed"
Journal of Forecasting, August 2004, 23(5), pp. 357-71.

"Testing the Expectations Hypothesis: Some New Evidence for Japan"
Monetary and Economic Studies, May 2004, 22(2), pp. 45-69.

"The Fed and Short-term Interest Rates: Is It Open Market Operations, Open Mouth or Interest Rate Smoothing"
Journal of Banking and Finance, March 2004, 28(3), pp. 475-98.

"Monetary Policy Transparency: Transparent About What?"
The Manchester School, September 2003, 71(5), pp. 478-97.

"The Dynamic Relationship Between the Federal Funds Rate and the Treasury Bill Rate: An Empirical Investigation"
with Lucio Sarno
Journal of Banking and Finance, June 2003, 27(6), pp. 1079-1110.

"Identifying the Liquidity Effect: the Case of Nonborrowed Reserves."
Journal of Banking and Finance, September 2001, 25(9), pp. 1717-39.

"The Federal Reserve's Operating Procedure, Nonborrowed Reserves, Borrowed Reserves and the Liquidity Effect"
Journal of Banking and Finance, September 2001, 25(9), pp. 1717-39.

"Lifting the Veil of Secrecy From Monetary Policy: Evidence From the Fed's Early Discount Rate Policy"
Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, May 2000, 32(2), pp. 155-67.

"The Information Content of Discount Rate Announcements: What's Behind the Announcement Effect"
Journal of Banking and Finance, January 1998.

"The Market's Reaction to Discount Changes: What's Behind the Accouncement Effect?"
Journal of Banking and Finance, January 1998, 22(1), pp. 83-108.

"Why Do T-Bill Rates React to Discount Rate Changes"
Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, November 1994.

"Comments on Federal Reserve Operating Procedures and Institutional Change"
Marvin S. Goodfriend and David H. Small, eds., Operating Procedures and the Conduct of Monetary Policy Conference Proceedings,
Financial and Economics Discussion Series, Working Studies, March 1993, 1(2).

"Financial Innovation: Causes and Consequences"
with C. Stone
Kevin Dowd and Mervyn K. Lewis, eds., Current Issues in Monetary Analysis and Policy, MacMillan Publishers, 1991.
Financial and Monetary Economics, 1992, pp. 81-109.

"Why do Market Interest Rates Respond to Money Announcements?"
Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 1991, 1(1), pp. 33-60.

"Unanticipated Money and the Anticipated Liquidity Effect: Some Further Evidence"
Journal of International Money and Finance, December 1989, 8(4), pp. 573-87.

"On the Treatment of the Weighted Initial Observation in the AR(1) Regression Model"
Journal of Econometrics, November 1987, 36(3), pp. 369-76.

"Price Expectations and the Demand for Money: A Comment"
with R. W. Hafer
Review of Economics and Statistics, August 1986, 68(3), pp. 539-42.

"The Appropriate Interest Rate and Scale Variable in Money Demand: Results from Non-Nested Tests"
Applied Economics, August 1985, 17(4), pp. 735-44.

"The Andersen-Jordan Equation, Revisited"
with Dallas S. Batten
Journal of Macroeconomics, Summer 1985, 7(3), pp. 419-32.

"Lag Length Selection and Granger Causality"
with Dallas S. Batten
Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, May 1985, 17(2), pp. 164-78.

"What do Almon's Endpoint Constraints Constrain?"
with Dallas S. Batten
Communications in Statistics: Simulation and Computation, 1985, pp. 683-90.

"The Budget Constraint, Endogenous Money and the Relative Importance of Fiscal Policy Under Alternative Financing Schemes"
Journal of Macroeconomics, Winter 1984, 6(1), pp. 57-67.

"Discount Rate Changes and the Foreign Exchange Market"
with Dallas S. Batten
Journal of International Money and Finance, December 1984, 3(3), pp. 279-92.

"Bank Money, Net Wealth and the Real-Balance Effect"
Journal of Macroeconomics, Winter 1983, 5(1), pp. 105-17.

"The Long-Run and Short-Run Demand for Money: Additional Evidence"
Journal of Macroeconomics, Summer 1982, 4(3), pp. 325-38.

"Maximum Likelihood Estimates of a Partial Adjustment-Adaptive Expectations Model of the Demand for Money"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, May 1982, 64(2), pp. 325-29.

"Bank Money as Net Wealth: A Comment"
Atlantic Economic Journal, December 1981, 9(4), pp. 43-5.

"The Empirical Significance of the Real Balance Effect"
with Paul E. Smith
Journal of Macroeconomics, Summer 1980, 2(3), pp. 213-32.

"In-Service Education and its Effects on Secondary Students: A New Approach"
with George M. Vredeveld


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Journal of Economic Education, Spring 1977, 8(2), pp. 93-9.