Education
Ph.D. Economics
University of California
San Diego
2000
M.A. Economics
University of California
San Diego
1996
B.A. Economics
University of California
Berkeley
1992
B.S. Mechanical Engineering
University of California
Berkeley
1992
Contact Info
Phone: (314) 444-8558
Fax: (314) 444-8731
Email: Michael.T.Owyang@stls.frb.org
Research Division
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
P.O. Box 442
St. Louis, MO 63166-0442
For media inquiries contact:
Ben C. Hardaway
mediainquiries@stls.frb.org
Office: (314) 444-8783
Cell: (314) 341-2714
Michael T. Owyang
Research Officer
Areas of Interest
- Time Series Econometrics
- Bayesian Econometrics
- Markov Switching
Events
Applied Econometrics and Forecasting in Macroeconomics and Finance Workshops
Upcoming: April 13, 2012
Selected Publications in Refereed Journals
"Multivariate Forecast Evaluation and Rationality Testing" - October 2007, Revised March 2011
with Ivana Komunjer
FORTHCOMING: Review of Economics and Statistics
Online Appendix
"The Propagation of Regional Recessions" - April 2009, Revised October 2010
with James D. Hamilton
FORTHCOMING: Review of Economics and Statistics
"Do Oil Shocks Drive Business Cycles? Some U.S. and International Evidence" - March 2010, Revised December 2010
with Kristie M. Engemann and Kevin L. Kliesen
FORTHCOMING: Macroeconomic Dynamics
"Measuring the Information Content of the Beige Book: A Mixed Data Sampling Approach"
with Michelle T. Armesto, Rubén Hernández-Murillo,
and Jeremy M. Piger
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, February 2009, 41(1), pp. 35-55.
"The Economic Performance of Cities: A Markov-Switching Approach"
with Jeremy M. Piger,
Howard J. Wall, and Christopher H. Wheeler
Journal of Urban Economics, November 2008, 64(3), pp. 538-50.
"Business Cycle Phases in U.S. States"
with Jeremy M. Piger and Howard J. Wall
Review of Economics and Statistics, November 2005, 87(4), pp. 604-16.
"Monetary Policy in a Markov-Switching VECM: Implications for the Cost of Disinflation and the Price Puzzle"
with Neville Francis, University of North Carolina
Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, July 2005, 23(3), pp. 305-13.
"Regime Switching and Monetary Policy Measurement"
with Garey Ramey, University of California, San Diego
Journal of Monetary Economics, November 2004, 51(8), pp. 1577-98.
Working Papers
"An Endogenously Clustered Factor Approach to International Business Cycles"
with Neville Francis and Özge Savascin
Working Paper 2012-014A posted April 2012
"Forecasting National Recessions Using State Level Data"
with Jeremy M. Piger and Howard J. Wall
Working Paper 2012-013A posted April 2012
"Did Affordable Housing Legislation Contribute to the Subprime Securities Boom?"
with Andra C. Ghent and Rubén Hernández-Murillo
Working Paper 2012-005A posted March 2012
"Race, Redlining, and Subprime Loan Pricing"
with Andra C. Ghent and Rubén Hernández-Murillo
Working Paper 2011-033A posted October 2011
"Where is an Oil Shock?"
with Kristie M. Engemann and Howard J. Wall
Working Paper 2011-016A posted June 2011
Current Research Projects
"An Endogeneous Clustered Factor Approach to International Business Cycles"
with Ozge Saviscin and Neville Francis
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review
"Regional Aggregation in Forecasting: An Application to the Federal Reserve’s Eighth District"
with Kristie M. Engemann and Rubén Hernández-Murillo
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, May/June 2011, 93(3), pp. 207-222.
"Patterns of Interstate Migration in the United States from the Survey of Income and Program Participation"
with Rubén Hernández-Murillo, Leslie S. Ott, and Denise Whalen
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, May/June 2011, 93(3), pp. 169-186.
"Forecasting with Mixed Frequencies"
with Michelle T. Armesto and Kristie M. Engemann
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, November/December 2010, 92(6), pp. 521-36.
"Nonlinear Effects of School Quality on House Prices"
with Abbigail Chiodo and Rubén Hernández-Murillo
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, May/June 2010, 92(3), pp. 185-204.
Other Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Publications
"Unconventional Oil Production: Stuck in a Rock and a Hard Place"
with Kristie M. Engemann
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, July 2010, pp. 14-15.
"A Winning Combination? Economic Theory Meets Sports"
with Kristie M. Engemann
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, January 2009, pp. 10-13.
"Regional Aggregation in Forecasting: An Application to the Federal Reserve's Eighth District"
with Kristie M. Engemann and Rubén Hernández-Murillo
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Regional Economic Development, October 2008, 4(1), pp. 15-29.
Recent Commentary
"Using Brent and WTI Oil Prices to Predict Gasoline Prices"
with Kevin L. Kliesen
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2011, No. 36.
"When Do Recessions Begin and End?"
with Kristie M. Engemann
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2010, No. 38.