Education
Ph.D. Economics
University of Wisconsin–Madison
1998
B.S. Mathematics
University of Kansas
1989
Contact Info
Phone: (314) 444-8594
Fax: (314) 444-8731
Email: Michael.W.McCracken@stls.frb.org
Research Division
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
P.O. Box 442
St. Louis, MO 63166-0442
For media inquiries contact:
Ben C. Hardaway
mediainquiries@stls.frb.org
Office: (314) 444-8783
Cell: (314) 341-2714
Michael W. McCracken
Research Officer
Published Articles
"Reality Checks and Nested Forecast Model Comparisons"
with Todd E. Clark
FORTHCOMING: Journal of Business and Economic Statistics
"Testing for Unconditional Predictive Ability"
with Todd E. Clark
FORTHCOMING: Oxford Handbook on Economic Forecasting
"In-Sample Tests of Predictive Ability: A New Approach"
with Todd E. Clark
FORTHCOMING: Journal of Econometrics
"Averaging Forecasts from VARs with Uncertain Instabilities"
with Todd E. Clark
Journal of Applied Econometrics, January/February 2010, 25(1), pp. 5-29.
"Combining Forecasts From Nested Models"
with Todd E. Clark
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, June 2009, 71(3), pp. 303-29.
"Improving Forecast Accuracy by Combining Recursive and Rolling Forecasts"
with Todd E. Clark
International Economic Review, May 2009, 50(2), pp. 363-95.
"Tests of Equal Predictive Ability with Real-Time Data"
with Todd E. Clark
Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, January 2009, 27(4), pp. 441-54.
The Regional Economist Articles
"Disagreement at the FOMC: The Dissenting Votes Are Just Part of the Story"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, October 2010, pp. 10-16.
Articles in Other Federal Reserve Publications
"Real-Time Forecast Averaging with ALFRED?"
with Chanont Banternghansa
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, January/February 2011, 93(1), pp. 49-66.
"Combining Forecasts from Nested Models"
with Todd E. Clark
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Finance and Economics Discussion Series, 2007-43, 2007.
Other Publications and Edited Volumes
"Forecasting with Small Macroeconomic VARs in the Presence of Instabilities"
with T.E. Clark
in D.E. Rapach and M.E. Wohar, eds., Frontiers of Economics and Globalization: Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks and Model Uncertainty,
Amsterdam: Elsevier, 2008, pp. 93-147.
"Pairwise Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy"
Quantile, September 2006, 1, pp. 53-62.
"Inference About Predictive Ability"
with Kenneth D. West
in Michael Clements and David Henry, eds., A Companion to Economic Forecasting. Oxford, U.K.: Blackwell Publishers, 2001, pp. 299-321.
"An Out-of-Sample Nonparametric Test of the Martingale Difference Hypothesis"
in Thomas Fomby and Carter Hill, eds., Advances in Econometrics: Applying Kernel and Nonparametric Estimation to Economic Topics. Stamford, CT.: JAI Press, 2000.
Working Papers
"Advances in Forecast Evaluation"
with Todd E. Clark
Working Paper 2011-025A posted September 2011
"Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy for Overlapping Models"
with Todd E. Clark
Working Paper 2011-024A posted September 2011
"Real-Time Forecast Averaging with ALFRED"
with Chanont Banternghansa
Working Paper 2010-033A posted August 2010
"Forecast Disagreement Among FOMC Members"
with Chanont Banternghansa
Working Paper 2009-059A posted December 2009
Recent Commentary
"Following the Fed with a News Tracker"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2012, No. 3.
"Initial Claims and Employment Growth: Are We at the Threshold?"
with Kevin L. Kliesen and Linpeng Zheng
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2011, No. 41.
"Should Food Be Excluded from Core CPI"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2011, No. 28.
"Housing's Role in a Recovery"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2011, No. 6.
"Using Stock Market Liquidity to Forecast Recessions"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2010, No. 20.
"Using FOMC Forecasts to Forecast the Economy"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2010, No. 5.
"Uncertainty About When the Fed Will Raise Interest Rates"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2009, No. 29.
"How Accurate Are Forecasts in a Recession?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2009, No. 9.